Summer 2023
Will Todos Santos Run Out of Water?
Even though no city in the Americas has ever run out of water, it looks like La Paz, Cabo San Lucas and/or Todos Santos could be the first. Baja California Sur is the driest and fastest growing region in Mexico and the concept of “sustainable growth” does not appear to be a concern of our government at this time.
For example, the La Paz aquifer has an average annual recharge rate (water going into the aquifer) of 18.5 hm3 (millions of cubic meters) per year and they are currently extracting 31.8 hm3 per year leaving a 13.3 hm3 deficit. In addition, like Todos Santos, La Paz aquifer has saltwater intrusion which compounds the problem. Their solution is to build a $165 million (USD) desalinization plant. Cabo San Lucas is building a second large desalinization plant to try to solve their water problems, but it is estimated that by the time it is finished the population will have increased by 100,000 people and may not provide sufficient drinking water for the predicted population growth.
Todos Santos Aquifer Study
To better understand exactly what our current water situation is locally and where we are headed, Protect Todos Santos hired Dr. Victor Sevilla Unda, professor of Water Science at the Autonomous University in La Paz, and Dr. William Sanford, professor in the Department of Geoscience at Colorado State University to study the aquifers in the Todos Santos region. Dr. Unda and Dr. Sanford have been reviewing past studies to determine the increase of extraction and to forecast the impact of our recent explosive growth.
We have learned that in a desert environment, collecting information on an ongoing basis is critical. This includes measuring the levels of water in the aquifers, installing equipment to track extraction amounts on an ongoing basis, measuring the level of water in the aquifers, and collecting data to better understand how the aquifer recharges following rainstorms. Unfortunately but not surprising that has not been happening in Todos Santos.
The results of these studies will also be provided to IMPLAN, the department of the Municipality of La Paz that is in the process of modifying our current PDU. (See article below). We think IMPLAN should know how much water we currently consume and how those numbers will be impacted by their proposed PDU as part of the development process. However, their most recent PDU draft indicates they are not going to do that very necessary calculation, so our plan is to present them with our scientists’ reports and predictions and hope they are incorporated it into the new PDU.
In the end, desalination may be our only hope unless we find ways to slow development, move water currently used for agriculture to domestic uses, find other ways to store water, and reduce water use through conservation. However, we are skeptical that La Paz will have the money needed to build a plant in Todos Santos. And it is not our first choice for a solution since desalination plants are notorious for using a large amount of fossil fuels, which contribute to climate change, and the salt brine waste created needs to be properly addressed.
Dr. Unda calculated the numbers in the chart below. It demonstrates the extraction and use of the water in our aquifer is growing rapidly beyond the average recharge. In an average year, the aquifer recharge is 3.7 million cubic meters, and that amount was exceeded for the first time in 2017. From 2013 to 2020 the rate of extraction doubled and if we extrapolate the rate based upon its recent growth, by 2030 we will be extracting twice as much water as is recharged in an average year.
According to previous studies the Todos Santos aquifer stores approximately 33 million cubic meters of water so by 2035 unless we change course our aquifer could run dry again. The last time this happened was in 1950 and it turned Todos Santos into a “ghost town”. It was not until 1975 that water reappeared in the aquifer because the recharge is very slow. We must make sure that never ever happens again.
Todos Santos PDU is being Updated – It Could be Good or Bad News
The Municipality of La Paz, held a meeting on April 27th to advise the citizens of Todos Santos that they have decided to review and modify our Programa de Desarrollo Urbano (PDU), the document developed by our community and enacted into law in 2012. As most of you know, our PDU is the document that Protect Todos Santos has been relying on to stop illegal construction projects.
The approximately 150 attendees (thanks to all of you who came) were shocked by the news that the Permit Department in Laz Paz that has not been enforcing the PDU or even responding to our Administrative Complaints, now wants to create a new document.
The good news is the General Law of Human Settlements, which governs the development of PDUs in Mexico states that any Municipality must consult with the community throughout the process to ensure their voices are heard. So, we will be raising our voices loud and clear to ensure whatever document is created meets the needs of our community and creates sustainable controlled development and protects our community in the years ahead.
An article regarding new PDU with our “wish list” can be found in the current Summer 2023 issue of the Journal del Pacifico. The article begins on page 27. Here is a link to download the issue.
https://journaldelpacifico.com/blog/issues-online/summer-2023
Learning Group Formed to Respond to the New PDU’s
In addition to Todos Santos, the Municipality has decided to create new PDU’s for several other communities and the entire state of Baja California Sur is creating a state-wide PDU. To provide comments and input for the new PDUs, Protect Todos Santos is now one of ten environmental non-profit organizations that are reviewing the drafts. It is exciting for us to be working together with environmental attorneys from CEMDA, UABCS professors, and other local non-profit environmental groups to support and hopefully mandate sustainable development throughout Baja California Sur.
Be Sure to Watch These Videos
One member of the new Learning Group is Legacy Works located on the East Cape. Their mission is very similar to ours. The following links are to videos they produced that also apply to our situation, over development’s impact on scarce water resources. As you watch, in your mind replace the words “East Cape” with “Todos Santos” because we have identical problems.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMxAn2gkXLI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LqPFGbhSEGw
Thanks for All You Do and Keep the Faith
The Municipality of La Paz knows firsthand through our long history of protests and litigation efforts over the past 2 years, that we are fierce protectors of our environment and our current PDU. Rest assured Protect Todos Santos will continue to demand the sustainable development that our PDU created in 2012.
We are thankful to everyone who is contributing to our efforts. If you have not donated, we hope you will consider making a one-time or small monthly donation on our website. Every bit helps ensure we have the funds we need to stop unsustainable development and protect our environment and scarce water resources.
Muchas Gacias,
The Team at Protect Todos Santos
